Bitcoin News

Bitcoin Braces for 12% Crash as Whales Are in Selling Spree

by Crypto Hobby

Updated July 23, 2025

Large whale crashing into Bitcoin coins — A whale eating crypto coins

Bitcoin is facing a potential sharp correction, with on-chain indicators suggesting a brutal 12% price drop from its current $117,674 to around $103,000. This bearish outlook is primarily driven by significant selling pressure from long-term holders and increased whale activity, signaling profit-taking and distribution.

Bitcoin's Looming Correction: Whales Signal 12% Price Drop

Bitcoin is currently trading around $117,674, but on-chain data points to a concerning trend: a potential 12% price crash to $103,000. This anticipated downturn is largely attributed to significant selling by long-term holders and increased whale activity.

Key Indicators Pointing to a Downturn

Long-Term Holders Cashing Out: The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reached 1.96 on July 21, indicating that long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at nearly twice their purchase price. Historical data shows that similar SOPR spikes have preceded significant price declines. For instance, a SOPR of 5.77 on February 9 led to a 12.55% drop to $84,365, and a SOPR of 3.47 on June 13 saw BTC fall to $101,003.
Whale Distribution Pressure: The Whale-to-Exchange (W2E) Ratio is on the rise, a reliable predictor of market corrections. When large holders move substantial amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, it typically signals an intent to sell. Recent examples include a W2E Ratio of 0.608 on June 28, followed by a price drop from $107,351 to $105,727, and a ratio of 0.649 on July 16, preceding current price weakness.

Critical Support Levels and Bearish Outlook

Bitcoin is currently testing crucial support around $116,456, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. A confirmed breakdown below this point could trigger further selling. The next significant support level, often referred to as the 'golden pocket,' is at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. However, if this fails to hold, the market could face a much steeper correction.

Given Bitcoin's recent price discovery phase, there are limited structural supports below $107,343. The next realistic support is near $103,355, representing the projected 12% correction. The bearish scenario would only be invalidated if Bitcoin reclaims the $122,086 high and pushes towards $122,827, accompanied by cooling SOPR readings and declining whale activity.