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BigBear.ai (BBAI): What to Expect as Defense AI Stock Surges

by Crypto Hobby

Updated August 08, 2025

BigBear.ai (BBAI) is gearing up to release its second-quarter 2025 financial results next week, with the announcement scheduled for August 11.

The company's stock has seen a significant surge of 51% year-to-date, fueled by increasing investor interest in artificial intelligence applications within the defense sector.

Despite positive momentum from government contracts, concerns about ongoing operating losses and potential shareholder dilution persist.

Analyst Expectations for Q2

Analysts are projecting a loss per share of $0.06 for the second quarter, a slight increase from the $0.05 loss reported in the same quarter last year.

Revenue is anticipated to grow by approximately 2% year-over-year, reaching $40.59 million.

This revenue growth, while positive, falls short of some market expectations.

Key Takeaways

Earnings Forecast: Analysts expect a loss per share of $0.06 on revenue of $40.59 million.
Stock Performance: BBAI stock has surged 51% year-to-date.
Growth Drivers: Increased investor interest in defense-linked AI and a growing contract backlog are key drivers.
Concerns: Ongoing operating losses and shareholder dilution remain areas of concern.
Analyst Sentiment: The stock holds a Moderate Buy rating with a price target of $9.00.

Factors Influencing Investor Sentiment

TipRanks' "Bulls Say, Bears Say" tool offers a balanced view of analyst sentiment.

Bullish analysts are encouraged by BigBear.ai's strengthened balance sheet, noting a cash reserve of $107.6 million at the close of Q1 2025.

They also point to significant wins like a $165 million contract with the U.S. Army and a strategic analytics partnership with L3Harris (LHX).

Conversely, bearish sentiment stems from concerns over escalating operating expenses and softer-than-expected revenue performance. The company's 2025 revenue guidance of $160 million to $180 million suggests modest growth, which is below the $193.9 million anticipated by the market.

Options Market Outlook

Options traders are anticipating a notable movement in BBAI stock following the earnings announcement.

According to TipRanks' Options tool, the expected earnings move is estimated at 18.15% in either direction, indicating significant volatility is priced into the stock.